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Start vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Start

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Tromso

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

Away 59% chance

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-113.2%0-211.9%0-37.2%0-4+4.9%1 1-05.9%1-110.7%1-29.6%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.4%2-14.3%2-23.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 22.2% 4.50 -33.4%

Draw 25.9% 26.0% 3.85 -0.3%

Away win 59.3% 58.8% 1.70 +0.8%

Over 2.5 48.4% 57.8% 1.73 -16.3%

Over 3.5 26.6% 35.7% 2.80 -25.5%

BTTS 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob47.9%

A 59% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 0–2 11.9%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Start0.8

Tromso1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

START · PPG 1.00

TROMSO · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Start (H) 14.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -33.4%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.3%

Tromso (A) 59.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Start face Tromso in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Start a 15% chance, the draw 26% and Tromso 59%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Start and 1.8 for Tromso (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Start are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Tromso. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Start vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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