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Zira vs Qabala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:30

Zira

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Qabala

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.9%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Draw 29.4% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

Away win 20.4% 22.2% 4.50 -8.2%

Over 2.5 44.1% 47.6% 2.10 -7.4%

Over 3.5 23.0% 26.0% 3.85 -11.5%

BTTS 48.6% 51.8% 1.93 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zira1.5

Qabala0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIRA · PPG 1.53

QABALA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Zira (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -13.2%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.0%

Qabala (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zira face Qabala in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zira a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Qabala 20%, so Zira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Zira and 0.9 for Qabala (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zira are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.60 for Qabala. This match finished 1-0.

Zira vs Qabala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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