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Sporting Gijon vs Ceuta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:15

Sporting Gijon

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ceuta

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.8%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.1%3-15.4%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 61.3% 1.63 -18.5%

Draw 27.5% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

Away win 22.4% 20.0% 5.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

Over 3.5 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

BTTS 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Gijon1.7

Ceuta1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING GIJON · PPG 1.89

CEUTA · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=50.0%

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Gijon (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -18.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.2%

Ceuta (A) 22.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Gijon face Ceuta in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Gijon a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Ceuta 22%, so Sporting Gijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sporting Gijon and 1.1 for Ceuta (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Gijon are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.79 for Ceuta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Sporting Gijon vs Ceuta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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