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Jeju Utd vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:30

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.2%0-113.1%0-23.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.7%1-111.2%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.3%2-14.8%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 34.5% 2.90 +19.8%

Draw 37.8% 30.8% 3.25 +22.9%

Away win 20.9% 41.7% 2.40 -49.8%

Over 2.5 16.1% 50.0% 2.00 -67.8%

Over 3.5 5.1% 28.2% 3.55 -81.9%

BTTS 23.3% 57.8% 1.73 -59.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob23.3%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 16% / NoBTTS 23%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.2%

#2 1–0 21.7%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–1✓ 11.2%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju Utd0.9

Gimcheon Sangmu0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 16.1% · O3.5 PROB 5.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.00

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

41%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Jeju Utd (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +19.8%

Draw 37.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +22.9%

Gimcheon Sangmu (A) 20.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -49.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju Utd face Gimcheon Sangmu in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju Utd a 41% chance, the draw 38% and Gimcheon Sangmu 21%, so Jeju Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Jeju Utd and 0.5 for Gimcheon Sangmu (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 16% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 23% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Gimcheon Sangmu. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Jeju Utd vs Gimcheon Sangmu Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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