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CZ Jena W vs Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

CZ Jena W

PPG 0.27 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Freiburg W

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.9%0-26.8%0-34.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.9%1-19.6%1-29.4%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.6%2-26.5%2-34.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-23.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +15.2%

Draw 24.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.8%

Away win 49.6% 61.0% 1.64 -18.7%

Over 2.5 65.0% 61.7% 1.62 +5.3%

Over 3.5 43.0% 40.0% 2.50 +7.5%

BTTS 65.9% 63.7% 1.57 +3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob65.9%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CZ Jena W1.4

Freiburg W2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CZ JENA W · PPG 0.27

FREIBURG W · PPG 0.64

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.27) vs Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

CZ Jena W (H) 25.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +15.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.8%

Freiburg W (A) 49.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

CZ Jena W face Freiburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CZ Jena W a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Freiburg W 50%, so Freiburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CZ Jena W and 2.0 for Freiburg W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CZ Jena W are averaging 0.27 points per game versus 0.64 for Freiburg W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 1-5.

CZ Jena W vs Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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