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Bucheon FC vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:30

Bucheon FC

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

Home 38% chance

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 30.8% — a clear edge.

+75.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-18.4%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.6%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 30.8% 3.25 +75.5%

Draw 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

Away win 19.0% 43.5% 2.30 -56.3%

Over 2.5 36.9% 40.8% 2.45 -9.6%

Over 3.5 17.4% 21.1% 4.75 -17.3%

BTTS 39.5% 50.0% 2.00 -21.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.5%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucheon FC1.4

Incheon Utd0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHEON FC · PPG 0.67

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.33

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

Chance this pick lands

38%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.33) strong but model favors Home (P=54.0%)

Win probability 1X2

Bucheon FC (H) 54.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +75.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.0%

Incheon Utd (A) 19.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -56.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucheon FC face Incheon Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucheon FC a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Incheon Utd 19%, so Bucheon FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bucheon FC and 0.7 for Incheon Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucheon FC are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Incheon Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +75.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Bucheon FC vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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