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Lyngby vs Hillerod Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Promotion Group - 28 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Lyngby

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hillerod

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.1%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.1%1-110.1%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.9%3-16.5%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 60.6% 1.65 -7.4%

Draw 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.1%

Away win 19.3% 20.6% 4.85 -6.4%

Over 2.5 59.2% 54.6% 1.83 +8.3%

Over 3.5 36.9% 33.3% 3.00 +10.7%

BTTS 58.9% 57.1% 1.75 +3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.9%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyngby2.0

Hillerod1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LYNGBY · PPG 2.14

HILLEROD · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Lyngby (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -7.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.1%

Hillerod (A) 19.3%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyngby face Hillerod in Denmark - 1. Division on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyngby a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Hillerod 19%, so Lyngby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lyngby and 1.1 for Hillerod (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyngby are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.38 for Hillerod. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Lyngby vs Hillerod Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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