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Lok. Zagreb vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Lok. Zagreb

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rijeka

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.0%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.3%1-112.8%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 31.7% 3.15 +12.4%

Draw 30.7% 30.8% 3.25 -0.2%

Away win 33.6% 46.3% 2.16 -27.4%

Over 2.5 46.1% 50.0% 2.00 -7.8%

Over 3.5 24.7% 29.0% 3.45 -14.8%

BTTS 53.2% 57.8% 1.73 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.2%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lok. Zagreb1.3

Rijeka1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOK. ZAGREB · PPG 1.75

RIJEKA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Lok. Zagreb (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +12.4%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -0.2%

Rijeka (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lok. Zagreb face Rijeka in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lok. Zagreb a 36% chance, the draw 31% and Rijeka 34%, so Lok. Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lok. Zagreb and 1.2 for Rijeka (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lok. Zagreb are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.06 for Rijeka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Lok. Zagreb vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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