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Mura vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Mura

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Koper

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.3%0-27.6%0-34.6%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.8%1-110.5%1-29.6%1-35.8%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.7%2-16.7%2-26.1%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 26.0% 3.85 -3.8%

Draw 26.1% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

Away win 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 58.8% 1.70 +1.3%

Over 3.5 37.2% 36.4% 2.75 +2.3%

BTTS 61.8% 62.5% 1.60 -1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 60.8%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.8%

A 49% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 0–1✓ 8.3%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mura1.3

Koper1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MURA · PPG 1.33

KOPER · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Mura (H) 25.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.4%

Koper (A) 48.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mura face Koper in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mura a 25% chance, the draw 26% and Koper 49%, so Koper are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mura and 1.8 for Koper (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mura are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Koper. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Mura vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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