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Vigor Lamezia vs Igea Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Vigor Lamezia

PPG 1.44 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Igea Virtus

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-111.4%0-26.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.0%2-17.8%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.7%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% — — —

Draw 32.6% — — —

Away win 32.1% — — —

Over 2.5 39.6% — — —

Over 3.5 19.4% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vigor Lamezia1.2

Igea Virtus1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VIGOR LAMEZIA · PPG 1.44

IGEA VIRTUS · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Vigor Lamezia (H) 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Igea Virtus (A) 32.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vigor Lamezia face Igea Virtus in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vigor Lamezia a 35% chance, the draw 33% and Igea Virtus 32%, so Vigor Lamezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vigor Lamezia and 1.1 for Igea Virtus (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vigor Lamezia are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.44 for Igea Virtus. This match finished 4-1.

Vigor Lamezia vs Igea Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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