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Nissa vs Paterno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Nissa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Paterno

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.5%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-19.1%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.4%3-16.3%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-15.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.2% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 9.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.6% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 3–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nissa2.0

Paterno0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NISSA · PPG 2.00

PATERNO · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nissa (H) 68.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paterno (A) 9.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nissa face Paterno in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nissa a 68% chance, the draw 22% and Paterno 10%, so Nissa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nissa and 0.7 for Paterno (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nissa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.13 for Paterno. This match finished 4-1.

Nissa vs Paterno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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