Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone I / Gelbison vs Gela

Gelbison vs Gela Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Gelbison

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gela

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.6%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.5%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 25.2% — — —

Over 2.5 45.2% — — —

Over 3.5 23.9% — — —

BTTS 51.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.2%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gelbison1.4

Gela1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GELBISON · PPG 1.50

GELA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Gelbison (H) 44.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gela (A) 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gelbison face Gela in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gelbison a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Gela 25%, so Gelbison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gelbison and 1.0 for Gela (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gelbison are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Gela. This match finished 2-0.

Gelbison vs Gela Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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