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AC Palermo vs Savoia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

AC Palermo

PPG 1.94 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Savoia

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.7%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.3%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 35.7% 2.80 +8.9%

Draw 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Away win 30.4% 42.6% 2.35 -28.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 42.9% 27.8% 3.60 +54.4%

BTTS 58.5% 57.1% 1.75 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Palermo1.8

Savoia1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AC PALERMO · PPG 1.94

SAVOIA · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.94), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

AC Palermo (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +8.9%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Savoia (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Palermo face Savoia in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Palermo a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Savoia 30%, so AC Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AC Palermo and 1.6 for Savoia (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Palermo are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.69 for Savoia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.4%. This match finished 1-3.

AC Palermo vs Savoia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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