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AC Palermo vs Savoia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Italy - Serie D - Girone I logo Italy flag Italy - Serie D - Girone I Group I - 33 Centro Universitario Sportivo· Palermo Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00
AC Palermo logo AC Palermo PPG 1.94
1-3 MISS
Savoia logo Savoia PPG 1.69
Over3.5· +54.4% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Palermo face Savoia in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Palermo a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Savoia 30%, so AC Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AC Palermo and 1.6 for Savoia (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Palermo are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.69 for Savoia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +54.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.9%
Odds: 2.80 EV: +8.9%
Draw 30.6%
Odds: 3.10 EV: -5.1%
Away 30.4%
Odds: 2.35 EV: -28.6%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 2.00 +18.0%
Over 3.5 42.9% Odds: 3.60 +54.4%
BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.75 +2.4%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 1-2
4th 2-2
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Palermo
1.78
Savoia
1.56

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +18.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+54.4%)

League Track Record

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%
O2.5/Under 61%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 57%

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.94), Away GOOD (1.69)

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