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Vibonese vs Acireale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Vibonese

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Acireale

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.2%0-26.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.1%1-113.0%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.2%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.5%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 44.4% 2.25 -17.4%

Draw 31.3% 32.3% 3.10 -3.0%

Away win 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

Over 2.5 44.0% 47.6% 2.10 -7.6%

Over 3.5 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -13.0%

BTTS 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.5%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0✓ 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vibonese1.3

Acireale1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VIBONESE · PPG 1.06

ACIREALE · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Vibonese (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.4%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.0%

Acireale (A) 32.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vibonese face Acireale in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vibonese a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Acireale 32%, so Vibonese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vibonese and 1.2 for Acireale (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vibonese are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.81 for Acireale. This match finished 1-0.

Vibonese vs Acireale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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