Savoia vs Sancataldese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Italy - Serie D - Girone I Group I - 34 Stadio Alfredo Giraud· Torre Annunziata Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Savoia PPG 2.25

3-0 MISS

Sancataldese PPG 0.56

Draw· +0.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Savoia face Sancataldese in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Savoia a 59% chance, the draw 26% and Sancataldese 15%, so Savoia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Savoia and 0.8 for Sancataldese (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Savoia are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.56 for Sancataldese. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.2%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -14.8%

Draw 26.0%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +0.1%

Away 14.8%

Odds: 6.75 EV: -0.1%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.1% Odds: 1.85 -11.0%

Over 3.5 26.3% Odds: 3.10 -18.5%

BTTS 47.7% Odds: 1.93 -7.9%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Savoia

1.79

Sancataldese

0.81

Model SuggestionHome -14.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -14.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+0.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=59.2%