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Savoia vs Sancataldese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Savoia

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sancataldese

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.0%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.3%1-110.8%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 69.4% 1.44 -14.8%

Draw 26.0% 26.0% 3.85 +0.1%

Away win 14.8% 14.8% 6.75 -0.1%

Over 2.5 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Over 3.5 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -18.5%

BTTS 47.7% 51.8% 1.93 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Savoia1.8

Sancataldese0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SAVOIA · PPG 2.25

SANCATALDESE · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

Savoia (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.1%

Sancataldese (A) 14.8%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Savoia face Sancataldese in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Savoia a 59% chance, the draw 26% and Sancataldese 15%, so Savoia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Savoia and 0.8 for Sancataldese (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Savoia are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.56 for Sancataldese. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Savoia vs Sancataldese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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