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Acireale vs Ragusa Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Acireale

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Ragusa

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-18.7%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.7%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-17.9%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% — — —

Draw 31.4% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.7% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 0–0✓ 14.0%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acireale1.3

Ragusa0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ACIREALE · PPG 1.19

RAGUSA · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Acireale (H) 46.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ragusa (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Acireale face Ragusa in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acireale a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Ragusa 22%, so Acireale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Acireale and 0.6 for Ragusa (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acireale are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.69 for Ragusa. This match finished 0-0.

Acireale vs Ragusa Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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