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Reggina vs Sambiase Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Reggina

PPG 1.81 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

Sambiase

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-112.7%0-25.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.2%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-17.0%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 61.7% 1.62 -38.1%

Draw 35.8% 29.4% 3.40 +21.7%

Away win 26.0% 19.0% 5.25 +36.5%

Over 2.5 28.8% 45.5% 2.20 -36.6%

Over 3.5 12.0% 25.0% 4.00 -52.0%

BTTS 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.4%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 16.2%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reggina1.0

Sambiase0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REGGINA · PPG 1.81

SAMBIASE · PPG 1.88

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Reggina (H) 38.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -38.1%

Draw 35.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.7%

Sambiase (A) 26.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reggina face Sambiase in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reggina a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Sambiase 26%, so Reggina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Reggina and 0.8 for Sambiase (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reggina are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.88 for Sambiase. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.5%. This match finished 4-2.

Reggina vs Sambiase Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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