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CastrumFavara vs Enna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

CastrumFavara

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Enna

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.7%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.3%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.8%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 44.4% 2.25 -11.1%

Draw 29.6% 31.3% 3.20 -5.3%

Away win 30.9% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Over 2.5 49.5% 50.0% 2.00 -1.0%

Over 3.5 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -3.4%

BTTS 55.6% 57.8% 1.73 -3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CastrumFavara1.4

Enna1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTRUMFAVARA · PPG 1.50

ENNA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

CastrumFavara (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -11.1%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.3%

Enna (A) 30.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CastrumFavara face Enna in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CastrumFavara a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Enna 31%, so CastrumFavara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CastrumFavara and 1.2 for Enna (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CastrumFavara are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Enna. This match finished 2-2.

CastrumFavara vs Enna Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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