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ACR Messina vs Milazzo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

ACR Messina

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Milazzo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-113.2%0-25.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-16.8%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 57.8% 1.73 -38.2%

Draw 35.9% 30.3% 3.30 +18.5%

Away win 28.4% 21.7% 4.60 +30.6%

Over 2.5 29.3% 46.5% 2.15 -37.0%

Over 3.5 12.3% 25.6% 3.90 -52.0%

BTTS 39.2% 51.3% 1.95 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.2%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0✓ 15.3%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ACR Messina1.0

Milazzo0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.3% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ACR MESSINA · PPG 1.38

MILAZZO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

ACR Messina (H) 35.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -38.2%

Draw 35.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +18.5%

Milazzo (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ACR Messina face Milazzo in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ACR Messina a 36% chance, the draw 36% and Milazzo 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for ACR Messina and 0.9 for Milazzo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ACR Messina are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Milazzo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 1-0.

ACR Messina vs Milazzo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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