ACR Messina vs Milazzo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Italy - Serie D - Girone I Group I - 34 Stadio San Filippo· Messina Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

ACR Messina PPG 1.38

1-0 HIT CS3

Milazzo PPG 1.00

Away· +30.6% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

ACR Messina face Milazzo in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ACR Messina a 36% chance, the draw 36% and Milazzo 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for ACR Messina and 0.9 for Milazzo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ACR Messina are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Milazzo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.7%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -38.2%

Draw 35.9%

Odds: 3.30 EV: +18.5%

Away 28.4%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +30.6%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 29.3% Odds: 2.15 -37.0%

Over 3.5 12.3% Odds: 3.90 -52.0%

BTTS 39.2% Odds: 1.95 -23.6%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

ACR Messina

1.01

Milazzo

0.88

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 57%

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)