Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone I / Ragusa vs AC Palermo

Ragusa vs AC Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Ragusa

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

AC Palermo

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-111.8%0-27.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.0%2-17.4%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% — — —

Draw 32.0% — — —

Away win 36.4% — — —

Over 2.5 41.4% — — —

Over 3.5 20.8% — — —

BTTS 49.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.4%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ragusa1.1

AC Palermo1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RAGUSA · PPG 1.38

AC PALERMO · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Ragusa (H) 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

AC Palermo (A) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ragusa face AC Palermo in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ragusa a 32% chance, the draw 32% and AC Palermo 36%, so AC Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ragusa and 1.2 for AC Palermo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ragusa are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.63 for AC Palermo. This match finished 1-2.

Ragusa vs AC Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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