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Vigor Lamezia vs ACR Messina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Vigor Lamezia

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

ACR Messina

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+25.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-18.1%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-111.1%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-17.6%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-13.4%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 45.5% 2.20 +25.2%

Draw 28.1% 34.5% 2.90 -18.5%

Away win 15.0% 31.3% 3.20 -52.0%

Over 2.5 30.1% 48.8% 2.05 -38.3%

Over 3.5 12.8% — — —

BTTS 31.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob31.6%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.1%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 13.7%

#4 1–1✓ 11.1%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vigor Lamezia1.4

ACR Messina0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VIGOR LAMEZIA · PPG 1.47

ACR MESSINA · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Vigor Lamezia (H) 56.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +25.2%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.5%

ACR Messina (A) 15.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -52.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vigor Lamezia face ACR Messina in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vigor Lamezia a 57% chance, the draw 28% and ACR Messina 15%, so Vigor Lamezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vigor Lamezia and 0.6 for ACR Messina (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vigor Lamezia are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.27 for ACR Messina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Vigor Lamezia vs ACR Messina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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