Sambiase vs Nissa Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Italy - Serie D - Girone I Group I - 33 Stadio Guido D'Ippolito· Lamezia Terme Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Sambiase PPG 1.38

1-1 HIT CS2

Nissa PPG 1.94

Home· +39.4% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sambiase face Nissa in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sambiase a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Nissa 29%, so Sambiase are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sambiase and 0.8 for Nissa (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sambiase are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.94 for Nissa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.2%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +39.4%

Draw 33.1%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -0.7%

Away 28.7%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -44.0%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.0% Odds: 2.25 -16.8%

Over 3.5 9.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 48.3% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sambiase

0.94

Nissa

0.77

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 57%

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.94) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)