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Sambiase vs Nissa Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sambiase

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Nissa

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-114.0%0-25.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.9%2-16.1%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 27.4% 3.65 +39.4%

Draw 33.1% 33.3% 3.00 -0.7%

Away win 28.7% 51.3% 1.95 -44.0%

Over 2.5 37.0% 44.4% 2.25 -16.8%

Over 3.5 9.5% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.3%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.1%

#2 1–1✓ 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sambiase0.9

Nissa0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMBIASE · PPG 1.38

NISSA · PPG 1.94

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.94) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Sambiase (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +39.4%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -0.7%

Nissa (A) 28.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -44.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sambiase face Nissa in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sambiase a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Nissa 29%, so Sambiase are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sambiase and 0.8 for Nissa (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sambiase are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.94 for Nissa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +39.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Sambiase vs Nissa Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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