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Reggina vs Paterno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Reggina

PPG 1.73 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Paterno

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 89.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-11.2%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-13.5%1-20.5%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.6%2-15.0%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.8%3-14.8%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-024.1%4+-16.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 89.3% 90.1% 1.11 -0.9%

Draw 8.6% 19.2% 5.20 -55.3%

Away win 2.1% 2.9% 34.00 -28.6%

Over 2.5 60.9% 65.4% 1.53 -6.8%

Over 3.5 38.6% — — —

BTTS 23.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob23.5%

H 89% / xG 2.9-0.3 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 24%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 17.6%

#2 3–0 16.8%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 4–0 12.0%

#5 5–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reggina2.9

Paterno0.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REGGINA · PPG 1.73

PATERNO · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.73), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Reggina (H) 89.3%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -0.9%

Draw 8.6%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -55.3%

Paterno (A) 2.1%

ODDS 34.00 · IMPLIED 2.9% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reggina face Paterno in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reggina a 89% chance, the draw 9% and Paterno 2%, so Reggina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Reggina and 0.3 for Paterno (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 24% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reggina are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.13 for Paterno. This match finished 2-0.

Reggina vs Paterno Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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