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Tuttocuoio vs Trevigliese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Tuttocuoio

PPG 0.19 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Trevigliese

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-112.6%0-28.3%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.1%2-16.7%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% — — —

Draw 31.6% — — —

Away win 41.1% — — —

Over 2.5 41.5% — — —

Over 3.5 20.9% — — —

BTTS 48.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.9%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuttocuoio1.0

Trevigliese1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TUTTOCUOIO · PPG 0.19

TREVIGLIESE · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.81) vs Home POOR (0.19)

Win probability 1X2

Tuttocuoio (H) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Trevigliese (A) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuttocuoio face Trevigliese in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuttocuoio a 27% chance, the draw 32% and Trevigliese 41%, so Trevigliese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tuttocuoio and 1.3 for Trevigliese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuttocuoio are averaging 0.19 points per game versus 0.81 for Trevigliese. This match finished 3-3.

Tuttocuoio vs Trevigliese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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