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Piacenza vs Crema Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Piacenza

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Crema

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.9%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.5%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.4%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 18.7% — — —

Over 2.5 47.7% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 50.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.3%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piacenza1.7

Crema0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PIACENZA · PPG 2.13

CREMA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Win probability 1X2

Piacenza (H) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Crema (A) 18.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Piacenza face Crema in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piacenza a 54% chance, the draw 28% and Crema 19%, so Piacenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Piacenza and 0.9 for Crema (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piacenza are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.25 for Crema. This match finished 3-1.

Piacenza vs Crema Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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