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Pistoiese vs Cittadella VM Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Pistoiese

PPG 2.06 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

Cittadella VM

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-110.1%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.7%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 33.1% — — —

Away win 20.5% — — —

Over 2.5 32.9% — — —

Over 3.5 14.7% — — —

BTTS 40.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.0%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pistoiese1.3

Cittadella VM0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PISTOIESE · PPG 2.06

CITTADELLA VM · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

Pistoiese (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cittadella VM (A) 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pistoiese face Cittadella VM in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pistoiese a 46% chance, the draw 33% and Cittadella VM 21%, so Pistoiese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pistoiese and 0.8 for Cittadella VM (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pistoiese are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Cittadella VM. This match finished 5-0.

Pistoiese vs Cittadella VM Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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