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Cittadella VM vs Pro Palazzolo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Cittadella VM

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Pro Palazzolo

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-111.6%0-24.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-16.8%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 38.5% 2.60 +9.5%

Draw 31.9% 33.9% 2.95 -5.9%

Away win 26.0% 39.2% 2.55 -33.7%

Over 2.5 38.0% 43.5% 2.30 -12.6%

Over 3.5 10.3% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.3%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–0✓ 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 0–1 11.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cittadella VM1.1

Pro Palazzolo0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTADELLA VM · PPG 2.13

PRO PALAZZOLO · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.13), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Cittadella VM (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +9.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -5.9%

Pro Palazzolo (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cittadella VM face Pro Palazzolo in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cittadella VM a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Pro Palazzolo 26%, so Cittadella VM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cittadella VM and 0.7 for Pro Palazzolo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cittadella VM are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.88 for Pro Palazzolo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Cittadella VM vs Pro Palazzolo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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