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Correggese vs Pro Sesto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Correggese

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Pro Sesto

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-113.2%0-27.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.5%1-113.4%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.8%2-16.8%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.0%3-12.3%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% — — —

Draw 33.2% — — —

Away win 37.1% — — —

Over 2.5 37.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.9%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0✓ 11.5%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Correggese1.0

Pro Sesto1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CORREGGESE · PPG 1.31

PRO SESTO · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.31) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Correggese (H) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pro Sesto (A) 37.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Correggese face Pro Sesto in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Correggese a 30% chance, the draw 33% and Pro Sesto 37%, so Pro Sesto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Correggese and 1.2 for Pro Sesto (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Correggese are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.63 for Pro Sesto. This match finished 1-0.

Correggese vs Pro Sesto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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