Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone D / Imolese vs Rovato Vertova

Imolese vs Rovato Vertova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Imolese

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Rovato Vertova

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-114.9%0-27.9%0-32.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.6%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.7%2-16.1%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 37.0% 2.70 -23.9%

Draw 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Away win 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

Over 2.5 31.5% 46.5% 2.15 -32.3%

Over 3.5 13.8% 25.6% 3.90 -46.2%

BTTS 41.0% 55.6% 1.80 -26.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.0%

D 35% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–0✓ 12.6%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imolese0.9

Rovato Vertova1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.5% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IMOLESE · PPG 1.00

ROVATO VERTOVA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Imolese (H) 28.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.9%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.5%

Rovato Vertova (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Imolese face Rovato Vertova in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imolese a 28% chance, the draw 35% and Rovato Vertova 37%, so Rovato Vertova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Imolese and 1.1 for Rovato Vertova (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imolese are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Rovato Vertova. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Imolese vs Rovato Vertova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone D Predictions