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Imolese vs Rovato Vertova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D logo Italy flag Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 34 Stadio Romeo Galli· Imola Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00
Imolese logo Imolese PPG 1.00
1-0 HIT CS4
Rovato Vertova logo Rovato Vertova PPG 1.06
Draw· +8.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Imolese face Rovato Vertova in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imolese a 28% chance, the draw 35% and Rovato Vertova 37%, so Rovato Vertova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Imolese and 1.1 for Rovato Vertova (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imolese are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Rovato Vertova. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.2%
Odds: 2.70 EV: -23.9%
Draw 35.0%
Odds: 3.10 EV: +8.5%
Away 36.8%
Odds: 2.45 EV: -9.8%
Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 31.5% Odds: 2.15 -32.3%
Over 3.5 13.8% Odds: 3.90 -46.2%
BTTS 41.0% Odds: 1.80 -26.2%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 0-1
4th 1-0
5th 0-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Imolese
0.90
Rovato Vertova
1.07

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

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