Progresso vs Sasso Marconi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 34 Stadio Comunale Progresso· Castel Maggiore Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Progresso PPG 0.88

4-1 MISS

Sasso Marconi PPG 0.69

Away· +18.7% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Progresso face Sasso Marconi in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Progresso a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Sasso Marconi 28%, so Progresso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Progresso and 0.9 for Sasso Marconi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Progresso are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.69 for Sasso Marconi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.5%

Odds: 1.72 EV: -33.8%

Draw 33.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +10.2%

Away 27.6%

Odds: 4.30 EV: +18.7%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 34.6% Odds: 1.98 -31.5%

Over 3.5 15.8% Odds: 3.40 -46.3%

BTTS 43.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Progresso

1.15

Sasso Marconi

0.94

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 56%

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.88), Away POOR (0.69)