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Progresso vs Sasso Marconi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Progresso

PPG 0.88 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Sasso Marconi

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-111.6%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.3%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-17.7%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 58.1% 1.72 -33.8%

Draw 33.9% 30.8% 3.25 +10.2%

Away win 27.6% 23.3% 4.30 +18.7%

Over 2.5 34.6% 50.5% 1.98 -31.5%

Over 3.5 15.8% 29.4% 3.40 -46.3%

BTTS 43.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.5%

H 38% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Progresso1.1

Sasso Marconi0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 15.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PROGRESSO · PPG 0.88

SASSO MARCONI · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.88), Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Progresso (H) 38.5%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -33.8%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +10.2%

Sasso Marconi (A) 27.6%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Progresso face Sasso Marconi in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Progresso a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Sasso Marconi 28%, so Progresso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Progresso and 0.9 for Sasso Marconi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Progresso are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.69 for Sasso Marconi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Progresso vs Sasso Marconi Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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