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Sangiuliano C. vs Desenzano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Sangiuliano C.

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

Desenzano

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-113.4%0-29.5%0-34.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.2%2-16.0%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% — — —

Draw 30.7% — — —

Away win 46.0% — — —

Over 2.5 42.0% — — —

Over 3.5 21.3% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.2%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sangiuliano C.0.9

Desenzano1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANGIULIANO C. · PPG 1.38

DESENZANO · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Sangiuliano C. (H) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Desenzano (A) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sangiuliano C. face Desenzano in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sangiuliano C. a 23% chance, the draw 31% and Desenzano 46%, so Desenzano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sangiuliano C. and 1.4 for Desenzano (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sangiuliano C. are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.44 for Desenzano. This match finished 0-5.

Sangiuliano C. vs Desenzano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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