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Pro Palazzolo vs Coriano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Pro Palazzolo

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Coriano

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.7%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.4%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-18.8%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% — — —

Draw 30.8% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.3% — — —

BTTS 44.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.9%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pro Palazzolo1.4

Coriano0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PRO PALAZZOLO · PPG 1.63

CORIANO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Pro Palazzolo (H) 49.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Coriano (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pro Palazzolo face Coriano in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pro Palazzolo a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Coriano 20%, so Pro Palazzolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pro Palazzolo and 0.8 for Coriano (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pro Palazzolo are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.88 for Coriano. This match finished 1-1.

Pro Palazzolo vs Coriano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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