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Coriano vs Piacenza Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Coriano

PPG 0.81 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Piacenza

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-113.2%0-210.6%0-35.7%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.3%1-111.7%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.2%2-15.2%2-24.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 44.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 24.4% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–2 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coriano0.9

Piacenza1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CORIANO · PPG 0.81

PIACENZA · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Coriano (H) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Piacenza (A) 44.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Coriano face Piacenza in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coriano a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Piacenza 45%, so Piacenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Coriano and 1.6 for Piacenza (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coriano are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.69 for Piacenza. This match finished 1-0.

Coriano vs Piacenza Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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