Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone D / Lentigione vs SantAngelo

Lentigione vs SantAngelo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Lentigione

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

SantAngelo

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=57.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.8%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-111.2%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.2%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.1%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 42.6% — — —

Over 3.5 21.8% — — —

BTTS 43.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lentigione1.6

SantAngelo0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LENTIGIONE · PPG 2.13

SANTANGELO · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=57.7%

Win probability 1X2

Lentigione (H) 57.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SantAngelo (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lentigione face SantAngelo in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lentigione a 58% chance, the draw 28% and SantAngelo 15%, so Lentigione are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lentigione and 0.7 for SantAngelo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lentigione are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.81 for SantAngelo. This match finished 2-2.

Lentigione vs SantAngelo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone D Predictions