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Pistoiese vs Coriano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Pistoiese

PPG 2.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Coriano

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.9% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-11.6%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-14.5%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-16.2%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.2%3-15.8%3-21.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-021.0%4+-18.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.9% 88.5% 1.13 -1.8%

Draw 10.0% 19.0% 5.25 -47.5%

Away win 3.1% 4.8% 21.00 -34.9%

Over 2.5 61.6% 63.7% 1.57 -3.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 30.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob30.0%

H 87% / xG 2.8-0.4 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.2%

#2 3–0 15.2%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 4–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pistoiese2.8

Coriano0.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PISTOIESE · PPG 2.20

CORIANO · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Pistoiese (H) 86.9%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -1.8%

Draw 10.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -47.5%

Coriano (A) 3.1%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV -34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pistoiese face Coriano in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pistoiese a 87% chance, the draw 10% and Coriano 3%, so Pistoiese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Pistoiese and 0.4 for Coriano (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pistoiese are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.73 for Coriano. This match finished 0-1.

Pistoiese vs Coriano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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