Pistoiese vs Coriano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 32 Stadio Marcello Melani· Pistoia Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Pistoiese PPG 2.20

0-1 MISS

Coriano PPG 0.73

Home· -1.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Pistoiese face Coriano in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pistoiese a 87% chance, the draw 10% and Coriano 3%, so Pistoiese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Pistoiese and 0.4 for Coriano (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pistoiese are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.73 for Coriano. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 86.9%

Odds: 1.13 EV: -1.8%

Draw 10.0%

Odds: 5.25 EV: -47.5%

Away 3.1%

Odds: 21.00 EV: -34.9%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.6% Odds: 1.57 -3.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 30.0% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 4-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Pistoiese

2.80

Coriano

0.38

Model SuggestionHome -1.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -1.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 56%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus