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Lentigione vs Progresso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Lentigione

PPG 2.27 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Progresso

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+15.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-13.4%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.2%1-16.9%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.6%2-17.0%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.6%3-14.7%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-13.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.0% 66.7% 1.50 +15.5%

Draw 17.3% 27.8% 3.60 -37.7%

Away win 5.8% 17.4% 5.75 -66.6%

Over 2.5 43.4% 47.6% 2.10 -8.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% — — —

BTTS 27.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob27.2%

H 77% / xG 2.0-0.4 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 27%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 18.6%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 3–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lentigione2.0

Progresso0.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LENTIGIONE · PPG 2.27

PROGRESSO · PPG 1.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.27), Away AVERAGE (1.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lentigione (H) 77.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +15.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -37.7%

Progresso (A) 5.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -66.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lentigione face Progresso in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lentigione a 77% chance, the draw 17% and Progresso 6%, so Lentigione are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lentigione and 0.4 for Progresso (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 27% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lentigione are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.20 for Progresso. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Lentigione vs Progresso Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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