Sasso Marconi vs Imolese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 33 Centro Sportivo G.Carbonchi· Sasso Marconi Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Sasso Marconi PPG 1.19

1-1 HIT CS2

Imolese PPG 0.88

Over2.5· +2.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sasso Marconi face Imolese in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sasso Marconi a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Imolese 23%, so Sasso Marconi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sasso Marconi and 0.8 for Imolese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sasso Marconi are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.88 for Imolese. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.4%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -0.5%

Draw 29.2%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -12.4%

Away 23.4%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -25.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 20.1% Odds: — —

BTTS 49.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sasso Marconi

1.55

Imolese

0.75

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +2.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is +2.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 56%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.88)