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Sasso Marconi vs Imolese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sasso Marconi

PPG 1.19 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Imolese

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-17.5%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.0%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 47.6% 2.10 -0.5%

Draw 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.4%

Away win 23.4% 31.3% 3.20 -25.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 20.1% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1✓ 11.7%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sasso Marconi1.5

Imolese0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSO MARCONI · PPG 1.19

IMOLESE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Sasso Marconi (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -0.5%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.4%

Imolese (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sasso Marconi face Imolese in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sasso Marconi a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Imolese 23%, so Sasso Marconi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sasso Marconi and 0.8 for Imolese (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sasso Marconi are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.88 for Imolese. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Sasso Marconi vs Imolese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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