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Imolese vs Desenzano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Imolese

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Desenzano

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-118.7%0-215.4%0-38.5%0-4+5.1%1 1-06.0%1-19.8%1-28.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.7%2 2-01.6%2-12.6%2-22.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.4% 20.0% 5.00 -43.0%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -22.4%

Away win 65.1% 61.7% 1.62 +5.5%

Over 2.5 37.2% 50.0% 2.00 -25.6%

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 33.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob33.1%

A 65% / xG 0.5-1.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 18.7%

#2 0–2 15.4%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 0–3 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imolese0.5

Desenzano1.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IMOLESE · PPG 1.07

DESENZANO · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Imolese (H) 11.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -43.0%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -22.4%

Desenzano (A) 65.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Imolese face Desenzano in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imolese a 11% chance, the draw 24% and Desenzano 65%, so Desenzano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Imolese and 1.7 for Desenzano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imolese are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 2.40 for Desenzano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Imolese vs Desenzano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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