Imolese vs Desenzano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 32 Stadio Romeo Galli· Imola Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Imolese PPG 1.07

0-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Desenzano PPG 2.40

Away· +5.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Imolese face Desenzano in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imolese a 11% chance, the draw 24% and Desenzano 65%, so Desenzano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Imolese and 1.7 for Desenzano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imolese are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 2.40 for Desenzano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 11.4%

Odds: 5.00 EV: -43.0%

Draw 23.5%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -22.4%

Away 65.1%

Odds: 1.62 EV: +5.5%

Model lean: Away

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.2% Odds: 2.00 -25.6%

Over 3.5 17.7% Odds: — —

BTTS 33.1% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✔

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 0-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Imolese

0.53

Desenzano

1.65

Model SuggestionAway +5.5% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 56%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.07)