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Correggese vs Trevigliese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D logo Italy flag Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 32 Stadio Comunale Walter Borelli· Correggio Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00
Correggese logo Correggese PPG 1.33
1-1 HIT CS5
Trevigliese logo Trevigliese PPG 0.80
Home· +15.8% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Correggese face Trevigliese in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Correggese a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Trevigliese 10%, so Correggese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Correggese and 0.6 for Trevigliese (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Correggese are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Trevigliese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.6%
Odds: 1.64 EV: +15.8%
Draw 19.2%
Odds: 3.45 EV: -33.8%
Away 10.2%
Odds: 4.60 EV: -53.1%
Model lean: Home
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.1% Odds: 1.95 -4.3%
Over 3.5 27.2% Odds: —
BTTS 39.8% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 3-0
4th 2-1
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Correggese
2.02
Trevigliese
0.61

Model Suggestion

Home +15.8% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5/Under 44%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 56%

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.80)

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