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Correggese vs Trevigliese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Correggese

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Trevigliese

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.4%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.5%1-18.9%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.1%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-14.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 61.0% 1.64 +15.8%

Draw 19.2% 29.0% 3.45 -33.8%

Away win 10.2% 21.7% 4.60 -53.1%

Over 2.5 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Over 3.5 27.2% — — —

BTTS 39.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.8%

H 71% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 3–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Correggese2.0

Trevigliese0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CORREGGESE · PPG 1.33

TREVIGLIESE · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Correggese (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +15.8%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -33.8%

Trevigliese (A) 10.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -53.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Correggese face Trevigliese in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Correggese a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Trevigliese 10%, so Correggese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Correggese and 0.6 for Trevigliese (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Correggese are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Trevigliese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Correggese vs Trevigliese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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