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Rovato Vertova vs Sangiuliano C. Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Rovato Vertova

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Sangiuliano C.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-19.5%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.5%1-112.4%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-18.0%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.5%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 37.7% 2.65 +20.1%

Draw 30.4% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 24.4% 40.0% 2.50 -39.0%

Over 2.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

Over 3.5 14.4% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0✓ 11.3%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rovato Vertova1.3

Sangiuliano C.0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ROVATO VERTOVA · PPG 2.00

SANGIULIANO C. · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Rovato Vertova (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +20.1%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Sangiuliano C. (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -39.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rovato Vertova face Sangiuliano C. in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rovato Vertova a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Sangiuliano C. 24%, so Rovato Vertova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rovato Vertova and 0.7 for Sangiuliano C. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rovato Vertova are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Sangiuliano C.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Rovato Vertova vs Sangiuliano C. Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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