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Piacenza vs Pro Sesto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Piacenza

PPG 2.07 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Pro Sesto

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.9%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 54.1% 1.85 -4.2%

Draw 25.8% 30.3% 3.30 -14.9%

Away win 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -19.4%

Over 2.5 44.1% 51.3% 1.95 -14.0%

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 46.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.8%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piacenza1.5

Pro Sesto0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PIACENZA · PPG 2.07

PRO SESTO · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Piacenza (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.9%

Pro Sesto (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piacenza face Pro Sesto in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piacenza a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Pro Sesto 22%, so Piacenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Piacenza and 0.9 for Pro Sesto (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piacenza are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.73 for Pro Sesto. This match finished 3-1.

Piacenza vs Pro Sesto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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