Piacenza vs Pro Sesto Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 32 Stadio Leonardo Garilli· Piacenza Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Piacenza PPG 2.07

3-1 MISS

Pro Sesto PPG 1.73

Home· -4.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Piacenza face Pro Sesto in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piacenza a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Pro Sesto 22%, so Piacenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Piacenza and 0.9 for Pro Sesto (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piacenza are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.73 for Pro Sesto. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.8%

Odds: 1.85 EV: -4.2%

Draw 25.8%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -14.9%

Away 22.4%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -19.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.1% Odds: 1.95 -14.0%

Over 3.5 23.0% Odds: — —

BTTS 46.8% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Piacenza

1.53

Pro Sesto

0.91

Model SuggestionHome -4.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -4.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.73)