Pro Palazzolo vs Crema Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Italy - Serie D - Girone D Group D - 32 Stadio Comunale· Palazzolo sull'Oglio Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Pro Palazzolo PPG 1.53

2-1 HIT CS5

Crema PPG 1.33

Away· +8.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Pro Palazzolo face Crema in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pro Palazzolo a 65% chance, the draw 23% and Crema 13%, so Pro Palazzolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Pro Palazzolo and 0.6 for Crema (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pro Palazzolo are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.33 for Crema. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.7%

Odds: 1.30 EV: -15.9%

Draw 22.5%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -5.5%

Away 12.9%

Odds: 8.40 EV: +8.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.1% Odds: 1.75 -24.6%

Over 3.5 22.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 39.0% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Pro Palazzolo

1.77

Crema

0.64

Model SuggestionHome -15.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -15.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+8.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 56%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.33)