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Pro Palazzolo vs Crema Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Group D - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Pro Palazzolo

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Crema

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.8%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-110.2%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 76.9% 1.30 -15.9%

Draw 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.5%

Away win 12.9% 11.9% 8.40 +8.4%

Over 2.5 43.1% 57.1% 1.75 -24.6%

Over 3.5 22.2% — — —

BTTS 39.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.0%

H 65% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pro Palazzolo1.8

Crema0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PRO PALAZZOLO · PPG 1.53

CREMA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Pro Palazzolo (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -15.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.5%

Crema (A) 12.9%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pro Palazzolo face Crema in Italy - Serie D - Girone D on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pro Palazzolo a 65% chance, the draw 23% and Crema 13%, so Pro Palazzolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Pro Palazzolo and 0.6 for Crema (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pro Palazzolo are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.33 for Crema. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Pro Palazzolo vs Crema Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone D

Match Preview & Prediction

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