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Valentine vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 06:30

Valentine

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Adamstown R.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+23.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-113.3%0-214.1%0-310.0%0-4+8.6%1 1-04.1%1-18.6%1-29.2%1-36.5%1-4+5.6%2 2-01.3%2-12.8%2-23.0%2-32.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.1% 26.3% 3.80 -61.6%

Draw 18.4% 26.7% 3.75 -31.0%

Away win 71.5% 57.8% 1.73 +23.7%

Over 2.5 52.4% — — —

Over 3.5 30.2% — — —

BTTS 42.1% 71.4% 1.40 -41.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob42.1%

A 72% / xG 0.7-2.1 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.1%

#2 0–1 13.3%

#3 0–3✓ 10.0%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine0.7

Adamstown R.2.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.33

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 0.67

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.33) vs Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 10.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -61.6%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -31.0%

Adamstown R. (A) 71.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Adamstown R. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 10% chance, the draw 18% and Adamstown R. 72%, so Adamstown R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Valentine and 2.1 for Adamstown R. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Adamstown R.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Valentine vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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