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Valentine vs Adamstown R. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Australia - Northern NSW NPL logo Australia flag Australia - Northern NSW NPL Regular Season - 8 Saturday, April 18, 2026 06:30
Valentine logo Valentine PPG 0.33
0-3 HIT CS3
Adamstown R. logo Adamstown R. PPG 0.67
Away· +23.7% ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away
65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Adamstown R. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 10% chance, the draw 18% and Adamstown R. 72%, so Adamstown R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Valentine and 2.1 for Adamstown R. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Adamstown R.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 10.1%
Odds: 3.80 EV: -61.6%
Draw 18.4%
Odds: 3.75 EV: -31.0%
Away 71.5%
Odds: 1.73 EV: +23.7%
Model lean: Away
Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.4% Odds: —
Over 3.5 30.2% Odds: —
BTTS 42.1% Odds: 1.40 -41.1%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2
2nd 0-1
3rd 0-3
4th 1-2
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Valentine
0.65
Adamstown R.
2.12

Model Suggestion

Away +23.7% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away.

League Track Record

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%
O2.5/Under 79%
BTTS/No 71%
Score Hit 39%
ROI 52.9%
Bet Hit 100% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away
65%
DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.33) vs Away POOR (0.67)

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