Today / Newcastle U21 vs Wolves U21

Newcastle U21 vs Wolves U21 Prediction

Monday, April 13, 2026

Newcastle U21
PPG 1.11 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Wolves U21
PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.9%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.8%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 54.1%
Draw 22.9%
Away win 23.0%
Over 2.5 56.2%
Over 3.5 33.8%
BTTS 56.2%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.2%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%
#2 2–1 9.8%
#3 1–0 9.7%
#4 2–0 8.8%
#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle U211.8
Wolves U211.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE U21 · PPG 1.11

WOLVES U21 · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle U21 (H) 54.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 22.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Wolves U21 (A) 23.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle U21 face Wolves U21 on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle U21 a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Wolves U21 23%, so Newcastle U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Newcastle U21 and 1.1 for Wolves U21 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle U21 are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.11 for Wolves U21.

PredictVantage

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