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Maitland vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 06:30

Maitland

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.8%0-23.1%0-33.6%0-4+7.4%1 1-01.0%1-13.3%1-25.6%1-36.5%1-4+13.4%2 2-00.9%2-13.0%2-25.1%2-35.8%2-4+12.1%3 3-00.5%3-11.8%3-23.1%3-33.5%3-4+7.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.2%4+-22.1%4+-32.4%4+-4+4.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 43.5% 2.30 -61.1%

Draw 14.2% 29.4% 3.40 -51.7%

Away win 68.8% 40.0% 2.50 +72.0%

Over 2.5 89.5% — — —

Over 3.5 76.8% — — —

BTTS 80.9% 71.4% 1.40 +13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob80.9%

A 69% / xG 1.8-3.4 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.5%

#2 2–3 5.8%

#3 1–2 5.6%

#4 1–4 5.6%

#5 2–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland1.8

Lambton Jaffas3.4

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.5% · O3.5 PROB 76.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 0.00

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 16.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -61.1%

Draw 14.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -51.7%

Lambton Jaffas (A) 68.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +72.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Lambton Jaffas in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 17% chance, the draw 14% and Lambton Jaffas 69%, so Lambton Jaffas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Maitland and 3.4 for Lambton Jaffas (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Lambton Jaffas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +72.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Maitland vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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