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Real Calepina vs Scanzorosciate Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Real Calepina

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Scanzorosciate

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-111.7%0-27.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-17.4%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% — — —

Draw 32.0% — — —

Away win 36.3% — — —

Over 2.5 41.4% — — —

Over 3.5 20.8% — — —

BTTS 49.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.4%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Calepina1.1

Scanzorosciate1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CALEPINA · PPG 1.25

SCANZOROSCIATE · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Real Calepina (H) 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Scanzorosciate (A) 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Calepina face Scanzorosciate in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Calepina a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Scanzorosciate 36%, so Scanzorosciate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Real Calepina and 1.2 for Scanzorosciate (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Calepina are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.31 for Scanzorosciate. This match finished 1-1.

Real Calepina vs Scanzorosciate Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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