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AC Milan B vs Vogherese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

AC Milan B

PPG 1.44 · HOME

10 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vogherese

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.4%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-19.3%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-16.8%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.7% 80.0% 1.25 -17.9%

Draw 22.3% 21.1% 4.75 +5.9%

Away win 12.0% 10.5% 9.50 +14.0%

Over 2.5 55.7% 57.8% 1.73 -3.6%

Over 3.5 33.3% 35.1% 2.85 -5.1%

BTTS 50.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 10-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.3%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Milan B2.1

Vogherese0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AC MILAN B · PPG 1.44

VOGHERESE · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.44), Away POOR (0.31) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

AC Milan B (H) 65.7%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -17.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.9%

Vogherese (A) 12.0%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan B face Vogherese in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan B a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Vogherese 12%, so AC Milan B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for AC Milan B and 0.8 for Vogherese (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan B are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.31 for Vogherese. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 10-1.

AC Milan B vs Vogherese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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