AC Milan B vs Vogherese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Italy - Serie D - Girone B Group B - 34 Stadio Felice Chinetti· Solbiate Arno Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

AC Milan B PPG 1.44

10-1 MISS

Vogherese PPG 0.31

Away· +14.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Milan B face Vogherese in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Milan B a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Vogherese 12%, so AC Milan B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for AC Milan B and 0.8 for Vogherese (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Milan B are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.31 for Vogherese. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 10-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.7%

Odds: 1.25 EV: -17.9%

Draw 22.3%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +5.9%

Away 12.0%

Odds: 9.50 EV: +14.0%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.7% Odds: 1.73 -3.6%

Over 3.5 33.3% Odds: 2.85 -5.1%

BTTS 50.3% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AC Milan B

2.10

Vogherese

0.81

Model SuggestionHome -17.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -17.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+14.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.44), Away POOR (0.31) - Strong consensus