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Caldiero Terme vs Varesina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Caldiero Terme

PPG 1.31 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Varesina

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.9%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.6%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% — — —

Draw 30.3% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 45.8% — — —

Over 3.5 24.4% — — —

BTTS 52.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.2%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caldiero Terme1.4

Varesina1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CALDIERO TERME · PPG 1.31

VARESINA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Caldiero Terme (H) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varesina (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Caldiero Terme face Varesina in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caldiero Terme a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Varesina 27%, so Caldiero Terme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Caldiero Terme and 1.1 for Varesina (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caldiero Terme are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.50 for Varesina. This match finished 2-2.

Caldiero Terme vs Varesina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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