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Chievo PPG 1.69 
Pavia PPG 1.06
Chievo vs Pavia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B
Chievo PPG 1.692-1 HIT CS2
Pavia PPG 1.06 ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence
Match Preview & Prediction
Chievo face Pavia in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chievo a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Pavia 24%, so Chievo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chievo and 1.1 for Pavia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chievo are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.06 for Pavia. This match finished 2-1.
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 49.8% Odds: — —
Over 3.5 27.8% Odds: — —
BTTS 54.3% Odds: — —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✔
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 0-0 ✘
5th 2-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Chievo 1.58
Pavia 1.08
Model Suggestion
BTTS MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 24 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 29%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 75%
Score Hit 33%
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
MODERATE_HOME 52%
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)