Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone B / Chievo vs Pavia

Chievo vs Pavia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Chievo

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pavia

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.5%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.8% — — —

Over 3.5 27.8% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chievo1.6

Pavia1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIEVO · PPG 1.69

PAVIA · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Chievo (H) 47.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pavia (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chievo face Pavia in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chievo a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Pavia 24%, so Chievo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chievo and 1.1 for Pavia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chievo are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.06 for Pavia. This match finished 2-1.

Chievo vs Pavia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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