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Castellanzese vs AC Milan B Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Group B - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Castellanzese

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

AC Milan B

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.69)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.4%0-26.5%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.5%1-113.2%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-17.7%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.6%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 37.0% 2.70 +1.3%

Draw 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away win 29.7% 40.8% 2.45 -27.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 20.4% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellanzese1.2

AC Milan B1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLANZESE · PPG 1.56

AC MILAN B · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Castellanzese (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +1.3%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.6%

AC Milan B (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellanzese face AC Milan B in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellanzese a 38% chance, the draw 33% and AC Milan B 30%, so Castellanzese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Castellanzese and 1.2 for AC Milan B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellanzese are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.69 for AC Milan B. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Castellanzese vs AC Milan B Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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