Castellanzese vs AC Milan B Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone B

Italy - Serie D - Girone B Group B - 33 Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi· Castellanza Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Castellanzese PPG 1.56

1-3 MISS

AC Milan B PPG 1.69

Over2.5· +2.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellanzese face AC Milan B in Italy - Serie D - Girone B on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellanzese a 38% chance, the draw 33% and AC Milan B 30%, so Castellanzese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Castellanzese and 1.2 for AC Milan B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellanzese are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.69 for AC Milan B. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.5%

Odds: 2.70 EV: +1.3%

Draw 32.8%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -1.6%

Away 29.7%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -27.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 20.4% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Castellanzese

1.17

AC Milan B

1.15

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+2.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.69)